Here's my "p!$$!^& into the wind" letter to my Senators, inspired by your nice encapsulation of the conclusions of the scientific community, which I included in the body of my emails to them. Don't expect any serious answer from either one of them, but it's what the heck?
Dear Senator __________
Hello,
In coming weeks/months, it is the responsibility of the Senate to query nominees for the Cabinet, and assuming that this occurs again this time around, I would hope that there is an opportunity to ask questions to the nominees from your position as Senator from Kansas. Specifically, I am concerned about the nominees so far having a history of downplaying or outright denying that climate change is an important topic that needs addressing, and any delays in taking those measures to mitigate its impact will only increase its severity and make it more difficult to reduce its impact on Kansans in our lifetime. Specifically, I think it is important to ask if each nominee agrees or at least does not outright deny that there is an overwhelming scientific consensus on each of the following points:
That climate change is real;
That climate change is a serious, existential threat;
That climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions;
That greenhouse gas emissions are driven primarily by fossil fuels; and
That solving climate change requires transitioning away from fossil fuels.
For that matter, since these conclusions, backed by virtually all the data and scientific analyses of that data, is of utmost important to the future of Kansas citizens, I sincerely hope that you, too acknowledge these conclusions and will do everything in your power to decarbonize the Kansas economy in a way that is effective in reducing the threats and at the same time do so in a timely way soas to reduce the economic toll that will only increase the longer we wait.
Good luck with that and always worth a try, but its clear that the only one of your 5 points that is valid is the first… All the data when correctly reviewed supports the Climate Realism policies that will be installed in both the USA and Canada ….. once we change our government.
There is still a strong need to ensure we have continued progress on improving our local environment and ensuring we have also adaption strategies where needed… but forget Climate mitigation and associated NetZero goals.
Welcome back, Nigel! You have decided to return to spout your lies again? You know, your sources still are the same tired repetition of positions that are simply not backed by any credible scientific study vetted by the climatological community, and without these, your clear conflict of interest is glaringly obvious. Feel free to say what you want, but without providing a credible model that either disproves the veracity of any of the 4 scientific statements as inaccurate/provides a model that more accurately accounts for the data so meticulously collected on all fronts, your statements just come across as just another oil lobbyist like those who have overwhelmed the latest COP.
Other than drinking the Koolaid of the other fossil fuel lobbyists, I would agree with you that there is still a strong need to ensure that we have continued progress on improving our local environment. We should not limit ourselves to adapting, though. As North Carolina just found out, you cannot adapt to 20 inch plus deluges. Without mitigation and a decarbonization economy that stops fossil fuel emissions, the chemistry of the atmosphere will continue to support extreme weather events with increasing frequency and severity, despite your denial that such connections exist. The best local environmental adaptation is to transform that local energy production/distribution network into renewables, coupled with energy efficiency measures across the economy that will reduce the need for increased demand. Do that locally and multiply it across the planet. If the feds want to get out of paying for increasing costs of climate-related disasters, they need to invest in the rapid deployment of a low carbon economy in our communities, as these increasing costs are way more costly than decarbonizing the way we live.
Its ok ….. you stick to your beliefs and I really don’t care… but you must know that a better review of the science and politics is now moving us toward Climate Realism, and its now clear that it will be the baseline policy that will place CO2 mitigation far below adaption and other environmental improvement initiatives.
It will be up to the climate alarmists to convince us for any need for this policy to change.
The Problem you will have is…
First…. Both long and short range climate history even after the increase in CO2 has not resulted in any statistical extremes in the climate environment for human coping and flourishing, and we will continue to benefit using the power of fossil fuels. This requires you to understand the data and root causes and separate weather and such short-term trends from 30-year climate trends that clearly show no climate emergency. To the contrary, we see advantages of more CO2 and a slightly warmer planet that has happened 5 times in the last 10,000 years..
Second…. Climate change Projection models have been continuously discredited and are running out of risk factors that support the notion that CO2 is the prime driver of global temperature.
Third… The notion that climate realists are in the evil pay of bad actors is getting real old. In fact its clear that the real criminals are the UN and past politics that have subjugated the integrity of Climate science, and this is going to be exposed with the review process I outline in my Substack article.
I am happy to discuss sustainability goals we need to follow so we better balance economy, social, and environment for our citizens. We are planning think tanks in Canada to work on this next year once we realign our government.
A better review of the science and politics is moving us toward Climate Realism? That's a very revealing statement, Nigel. What you really mean is that the hard science, i.e. data collection and rigorous analyses are being suppressed by the political elements that are dominated by the fossil fuel interests. Climate Realism is newspeak for Climate Denialism, as is evidenced by the whitewashing report ( https://issuu.com/libertyfrac/docs/bettering_human_lives_2024_web_-_liberty_energy/2?ff ) put out by our new cabinet nominee, who is denying the importance of the changes in the climate caused by fossil fuel emissions and says that we should build out way out of the issue by.....you guessed it....more fossil fuel emissions-fueled economic growth!
This is not science, but a classic example of those in charge wanting to retain their economic and political power despite the clear evidence of the damage that they are causing, which clearly will only get worse. Your BS 3 points are the same denialist points that have been so thoroughly discredited as to not merit a response other than to say that C02 and other greenhouse emissions from fossill fuels have changed the atmospheric chemistry in ways that created impacts (sea, atmospheric warming, increased frequency of droughts, increased flooding, increased strength of hurricanes, increased wildfires frequency/severity, poleward shift of species, increased acidification of the oceans, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching, etc) that were precisely predicted and no alternative mechanisms have been offered by denialists that account for the physics used by models that place causality for all of these effects squarely at the feet of fossil fuel emissions.
So yes, I am also happy to discuss sustainability goals that share a decarbonized economy as an essential component.
Ha Ha....When are you going to stop listening to lies…Why don’t you come to terms that there is no emergency level issues (30 year averages) with the metrics of increased frequency of droughts, increased flooding, increased strength of hurricanes, increased wildfires due to climate, increased acidification of the oceans, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching,… these do vary with weather but are all showing no statistical adverse trends due to climate change and this has been fully reported. (Note weather transients is not Climate…)
Why not read Unsettled by Koonin… He is getting good review with our governments.. If you have not read his book or reviewed the links above you should before you debate with me any more as all the data we use is the same data that is in the IPCC scientific section reports.. it’s the policy sections that tell huge lies.
Sustainability goals will not include any mention of CO2.
Anyway…. I am extremely happy that we now have the correct policies going forward. 😊
Sorry for not replying sooner--life intervened. I reviewed you CO2 coalition materials and your Tom Nelson pod and they fall well short of anything the IPCC has provided in their transparent process. The climatological community has provided a multi-year ongoing endeavor that continually evaluates the ongoing data collection, analyses and has developed 6 Syntheses reports, with the latest being AR6, and is working on the 7th. This involves hundreds if not thousands of contributing authors, writers and review editors, guided by a scientific sterring committee. This is not a radical community; in fact the scientific method is geared toward shooting down any and every hypothesis in order to ensure that there is not some alternative explanation/model that provides a better fit to the carefully vetted systematically collected data. The results of this process is inherently conservative, so any conclusions that are provided are couched in level of certainty as science always leaves room for new information and models that are counter to the conclusions provided.
That said, here is the relevant set of conclusions that they provided in 2023 in their latest Synthesis report:
"B.1.3 Continued emissions will further affect all major climate system components. With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to become larger. Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation, and
very wet and very dry weather and climate events and seasons (high confidence). In scenarios with increasing CO 2 emissions, natural land and ocean carbon sinks are projected to take up a decreasing proportion of these emissions (high confidence). Other projected changes include further reduced extents and/or volumes of almost
all cryospheric elements 34 (high confidence), further global mean sea level rise (virtually certain), and increased ocean acidification (virtually certain) and deoxygenation (high confidence). {3.1.1, 3.3.1, Figure 3.4} (Figure SPM.2)
"B.1.4 With further warming, every region is projected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers. Compound heatwaves and droughts are projected to become more frequent, including concurrent events across multiple locations (high confidence). Due to relative sea level rise, current 1-in-100 year extreme sea level events are projected to occur at least annually in more than half of all tide gauge locations by 2100 under all considered scenarios (high confidence). Other projected regional changes include intensification of tropical cyclones and/or extratropical storms (medium confidence), and increases in aridity
and fire weather (medium to high confidence) {3.1.1, 3.1.3}
"B.1.5 Natural variability will continue to modulate human-caused climate changes, either attenuating or amplifying projected changes, with little effect on centennial-scale global warming (high confidence). These modulations are important to consider in adaptation planning, especially at the regional scale and in the near
term. If a large explosive volcanic eruption were to occur 35 , it would temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change by reducing global surface temperature and precipitation for one to three years (medium confidence). {4.3} "
In a nutshell, this is the gold standard of understanding in the scientific climatological community, and your little dances in the CO2 coalition are entertaining to your faithful, but wither away under the rigorous standards of the scientific community. Climate Realism is just Climate Denialism 2.0 and is a political protectionism endeavor that has nothing to do with the science. The writing is on the wall, and we can choose to ignore it for a while longer, but that does not mean we will be able to ignore the consequences that only increase with time.
Loved the podcast with Rachel Donald. So glad you can laugh, it’s healthy and helps so much with both keeping confident and keeping perspective. On a positive note here is a recent article from Speed&Scale discussing electrification and how Trumps election, while a huge setback, can’t stop the energy transition. I work in the battery industry and I’ve said for years now the economics are driving it, it can’t be stopped , not by Trump , not by any one. Keep up the fight ! /Roger
Its very clear that climate activists and alarmists are going to get a strong dose of Climate realism in the next year as many major western governments realign away from NetZero that is now being proved to be unnecessary, technologically unattainable, economically unviable and extremely foolish.
Many of these new western governments are going to be rolling back carbon taxes and other limits to prosperity placed on their citizens by a NetZero agenda.
This reset is due to new scientific data from more independent scientific groups that clearly shows that there is no climate emergency on this planet.
This means Trump and his team are correct to place climate change low on the priority for government policy and action, other than focused adaptation to a slightly warming planet.
Agree that going to 0% fossil is not realistic nor practical in the short term for a variety of reasons (national security— need to keep fossil infrastructure for things like the military, by-products like asphalt etc). Maybe we go to 10% fossil and see if the CO2 parts per million starts to descend from 420. You don’t seem to be informed on climate science, to say things like a “ slightly warming planet” just displays your ignorance and you need to go back and just do some google searching for a week and get informed. I’d type here and explain it to you , but it’s 2024 and I’m done explaining it to anyone over the age of 30. You’re biased, that’s very clear.
I recommend ignoring Nigel. He's a climate denier and he used to spam the comments section of every single HEATED newsletter. I thought he was gone, but just like Eminem, he's back, back again...
You were right Jill, but it was fun while it lasted :). He doesn’t understand climate fundamentals and just ignores your comments when you call him on it.
Ya, I stopped replying to trolls years ago because they’re mostly just idiots, but this guy Nigel seems to be a reasonably accomplished and intelligent person and is worth convincing I think, let’s see where it goes
Look … Try not to get defensive and abusive if the concept of the “science is settled” gets questioned, because many scientists are saying it is far from settled, and we don’t have a climate emergency on this planet. And that’s why many governments are moving on to far more important policy items. The best suggestion for you is to take a fresh look at the science before you get trapped in your own paradigm. I provided quite a lot of information on my Substack link…… I see you are in the Renewables business.. so this may be the motivation?
No, my 3 daughter’s future is the motivation. I was in the Semiconductor industry for 31 years, only started working in battery the last 5 years. I’ll read your Substack if you do some real research on climate change. And read this article as well on cognitive bias, we all have bias’s , including some of the greatest contributors in all of humanity , it’s human nature. The article is a bit long winded but it’s important to understand, especially in the climate debate, you need to learn more on climate..
O Please matey.. I am not going to read about this belief system stuff …Its more appropriate you read it as Its clear that you are the one in denial … 😊
Actually, I have a deep understanding of the science, and we now have solid facts that support climate realism.
Why don’t you review the information I have provided that shows that all climate history and impact trends show no risks and climate model projections continue to over state the risk outlook. Most of the “emergency” rhetoric from the UN political sources have been discredited.
But its academic as we now have new western governments who have reviewed the facts agree that we don’t have a climate emergency on this planet. (USA and Canada and a few in the EU and more soon)
If you have scientific questions…… I can try to respond to them…… but its up to you to reach a better state of reality.
Look… If you have a scientific question or comments on the facts I have presented I will try to help but don’t keep saying that I “don’t understand” or some other kind of waste of my time.
As already mentioned the new policy baseline in the USA and Canada will soon be Climate Realism which I explained in my Substack link, and its now your job to change our position….. not ours to convince you.
I will leave you with another article that was written about a year ago and most of my predictions have come true.…
Some of these people even *used* to be Democrats. Now they're a shell of the promise they once offered as politicians and activists. To say it's disappointing would be an understatement.
Thank you again for detailing this. The next two years will be critical - mid terms are likely to be a further referendum on their agenda. Their positions on climate policy are predictable, but mostly because of political polarization than any real "belief system" (ok, the oil exec excepted). Looking at this through the eyes of "American Exceptionalism", and moreover the MAGA sense that "they're trying to destroy our way of life", there is a way to counter what is admittedly a really bad set of actors. Clean energy jobs are also just jobs for electricians, utility workers, manufacturing labor, construction workers, etc... and I would expect a full rebranding. Shouldn't we try to wrap the clean energy transition policies in American first (counter the Chinese), wrap the jobs in our exceptionalism as a creative and dynamic economy, wrap the tax policies in giving benefits to the average American family who wants a new roof, heat pump, new electrical panel. While a part of the climate movement must keep working on climate justice, getting the science funded, and global solidarity, there is a role for keeping the momentum going by fitting into a different frame; Not contorting, but merely stripping away some of the language and branding that gets in the way.
Be the chameleon. Find the cracks and exploit the disunity. Magnify the winning messages. Don't give up.
The U.S. is in dire straits and all we can do is watch it all burn while we do our best to take care of what we can within our reach. All we can do anymore is individual actions to mitigate our personal carbon footprint. The new government only cares about making money for the wealthy corporations. We will have to endure this for at least a couple of years or longer, depending on the mid-term elections.
If you live in one of the extreme weather impact zones, get ready as the new government will not be there to help you anymore, not that they have offered much to anyone lately.
Take care of yourselves as best as you can as we no longer have a government for the people. It is a government for the rich elites until the people decide to vote in a different direction.
You call Chris Wright one of the most concerning appointments for the incoming administration. I respectfully disagree.
Full disclosure: I am a career frac’r and have worked with and for Chris Wright since 1994.
Unfortunately, anyone who asks any questions about climate change and mitigation of CO2 emissions today is quickly called a climate change denier. This branding is unfortunate. It does not allow for any nuances on scientific differences, alternative solutions or a frame of reference as compared to other problems.
Science is at its best when people ask questions. This is where Wright excels. But asking questions is controversial in a mostly single-problem and single-solution climate world. Please help me with these if you can:
- While he agrees CO2 is increasing due to use of fossil fuels, is it ok to ask if that is exclusively bad? (global greening, increased crop yields, fewer deaths from extreme cold)
- Is it ok to repeat the IPCC assessment that today’s extreme weather events are not much different from the past, or that the politicized IPCC assessment report summary exaggerates its own scientific findings?
- What’s wrong about his concern that climate change is not our top problem when Nobel Laureate Nordhaus assesses that human climate adaption will only have a single-digit percentage point negative impact on global economic wellbeing in the year 2100, while overall GDP per capita for all citizens of the world will have increased 300-400%?
- What’s wrong about him wanting to provide 7 billion poor people in need, with poverty as their #1 problem, access to cheap and abundant energy that you and I take for granted?
I hope you will answer the above questions just as he will answer your five in the Senate. You may not agree with all answers, but that’s ok in a world where people debate trade-offs - the real world.
You’ll be in for a treat. I know few people who are as thoughtful, understanding of big-picture problems and economic costs & benefits, and as passionate about access to energy for all people on this planet beyond the lucky 1 billion.
Call me biased. Please do. That’s because I have seen proof of a sober approach to climate and energy for thirty years.
“Is it ok to repeat the IPCC assessment that today’s extreme weather events are not much different from the past, or that the politicized IPCC assessment report summary exaggerates its own scientific findings?“. — again do your own research, Katherine Hayhoe’s publications are a great place to start. Climate change is a force multiplier, ask the people of Asheville,NC what they think about past vs present rainfall. Water saturation in air is an exponential function of temperature:
“While he agrees CO2 is increasing due to use of fossil fuels, is it ok to ask if that is exclusively bad? (global greening, increased crop yields, fewer deaths from extreme cold)”
The fact that you even need to ask this questions displays your ignorance, there are dozens of tipping points that will have catastrophic consequences, just do your own research or talk to someone who has.
Here's my "p!$$!^& into the wind" letter to my Senators, inspired by your nice encapsulation of the conclusions of the scientific community, which I included in the body of my emails to them. Don't expect any serious answer from either one of them, but it's what the heck?
Dear Senator __________
Hello,
In coming weeks/months, it is the responsibility of the Senate to query nominees for the Cabinet, and assuming that this occurs again this time around, I would hope that there is an opportunity to ask questions to the nominees from your position as Senator from Kansas. Specifically, I am concerned about the nominees so far having a history of downplaying or outright denying that climate change is an important topic that needs addressing, and any delays in taking those measures to mitigate its impact will only increase its severity and make it more difficult to reduce its impact on Kansans in our lifetime. Specifically, I think it is important to ask if each nominee agrees or at least does not outright deny that there is an overwhelming scientific consensus on each of the following points:
That climate change is real;
That climate change is a serious, existential threat;
That climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions;
That greenhouse gas emissions are driven primarily by fossil fuels; and
That solving climate change requires transitioning away from fossil fuels.
For that matter, since these conclusions, backed by virtually all the data and scientific analyses of that data, is of utmost important to the future of Kansas citizens, I sincerely hope that you, too acknowledge these conclusions and will do everything in your power to decarbonize the Kansas economy in a way that is effective in reducing the threats and at the same time do so in a timely way soas to reduce the economic toll that will only increase the longer we wait.
Very cool idea!
Ken
Good luck with that and always worth a try, but its clear that the only one of your 5 points that is valid is the first… All the data when correctly reviewed supports the Climate Realism policies that will be installed in both the USA and Canada ….. once we change our government.
There is still a strong need to ensure we have continued progress on improving our local environment and ensuring we have also adaption strategies where needed… but forget Climate mitigation and associated NetZero goals.
https://nigelsouthway.substack.com/p/no-netzero
https://www.brainzmagazine.com/post/take-back-manufacturing-climate-realism
Welcome back, Nigel! You have decided to return to spout your lies again? You know, your sources still are the same tired repetition of positions that are simply not backed by any credible scientific study vetted by the climatological community, and without these, your clear conflict of interest is glaringly obvious. Feel free to say what you want, but without providing a credible model that either disproves the veracity of any of the 4 scientific statements as inaccurate/provides a model that more accurately accounts for the data so meticulously collected on all fronts, your statements just come across as just another oil lobbyist like those who have overwhelmed the latest COP.
Other than drinking the Koolaid of the other fossil fuel lobbyists, I would agree with you that there is still a strong need to ensure that we have continued progress on improving our local environment. We should not limit ourselves to adapting, though. As North Carolina just found out, you cannot adapt to 20 inch plus deluges. Without mitigation and a decarbonization economy that stops fossil fuel emissions, the chemistry of the atmosphere will continue to support extreme weather events with increasing frequency and severity, despite your denial that such connections exist. The best local environmental adaptation is to transform that local energy production/distribution network into renewables, coupled with energy efficiency measures across the economy that will reduce the need for increased demand. Do that locally and multiply it across the planet. If the feds want to get out of paying for increasing costs of climate-related disasters, they need to invest in the rapid deployment of a low carbon economy in our communities, as these increasing costs are way more costly than decarbonizing the way we live.
Ken
Its ok ….. you stick to your beliefs and I really don’t care… but you must know that a better review of the science and politics is now moving us toward Climate Realism, and its now clear that it will be the baseline policy that will place CO2 mitigation far below adaption and other environmental improvement initiatives.
It will be up to the climate alarmists to convince us for any need for this policy to change.
The Problem you will have is…
First…. Both long and short range climate history even after the increase in CO2 has not resulted in any statistical extremes in the climate environment for human coping and flourishing, and we will continue to benefit using the power of fossil fuels. This requires you to understand the data and root causes and separate weather and such short-term trends from 30-year climate trends that clearly show no climate emergency. To the contrary, we see advantages of more CO2 and a slightly warmer planet that has happened 5 times in the last 10,000 years..
Second…. Climate change Projection models have been continuously discredited and are running out of risk factors that support the notion that CO2 is the prime driver of global temperature.
Third… The notion that climate realists are in the evil pay of bad actors is getting real old. In fact its clear that the real criminals are the UN and past politics that have subjugated the integrity of Climate science, and this is going to be exposed with the review process I outline in my Substack article.
I am happy to discuss sustainability goals we need to follow so we better balance economy, social, and environment for our citizens. We are planning think tanks in Canada to work on this next year once we realign our government.
Stay well.
A better review of the science and politics is moving us toward Climate Realism? That's a very revealing statement, Nigel. What you really mean is that the hard science, i.e. data collection and rigorous analyses are being suppressed by the political elements that are dominated by the fossil fuel interests. Climate Realism is newspeak for Climate Denialism, as is evidenced by the whitewashing report ( https://issuu.com/libertyfrac/docs/bettering_human_lives_2024_web_-_liberty_energy/2?ff ) put out by our new cabinet nominee, who is denying the importance of the changes in the climate caused by fossil fuel emissions and says that we should build out way out of the issue by.....you guessed it....more fossil fuel emissions-fueled economic growth!
This is not science, but a classic example of those in charge wanting to retain their economic and political power despite the clear evidence of the damage that they are causing, which clearly will only get worse. Your BS 3 points are the same denialist points that have been so thoroughly discredited as to not merit a response other than to say that C02 and other greenhouse emissions from fossill fuels have changed the atmospheric chemistry in ways that created impacts (sea, atmospheric warming, increased frequency of droughts, increased flooding, increased strength of hurricanes, increased wildfires frequency/severity, poleward shift of species, increased acidification of the oceans, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching, etc) that were precisely predicted and no alternative mechanisms have been offered by denialists that account for the physics used by models that place causality for all of these effects squarely at the feet of fossil fuel emissions.
So yes, I am also happy to discuss sustainability goals that share a decarbonized economy as an essential component.
Ha Ha....When are you going to stop listening to lies…Why don’t you come to terms that there is no emergency level issues (30 year averages) with the metrics of increased frequency of droughts, increased flooding, increased strength of hurricanes, increased wildfires due to climate, increased acidification of the oceans, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching,… these do vary with weather but are all showing no statistical adverse trends due to climate change and this has been fully reported. (Note weather transients is not Climate…)
Lets go with Hurricanes…
Hurricane numbers are increasing - CO2 Coalition
https://co2coalition.org/quiz/hurricane-numbers-are-increasing/
More data from reliable sources
Climate Quiz - CO2 Coalition
https://co2coalition.org/climate-quiz/
And
Wallace Manheimer: “Science Societies’ Climate Statements: Some Concerns” | Tom Nelson Pod #243
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IraXQCWQZhs&t=2s
Why not read Unsettled by Koonin… He is getting good review with our governments.. If you have not read his book or reviewed the links above you should before you debate with me any more as all the data we use is the same data that is in the IPCC scientific section reports.. it’s the policy sections that tell huge lies.
Sustainability goals will not include any mention of CO2.
Anyway…. I am extremely happy that we now have the correct policies going forward. 😊
https://clintel.org/
Sorry for not replying sooner--life intervened. I reviewed you CO2 coalition materials and your Tom Nelson pod and they fall well short of anything the IPCC has provided in their transparent process. The climatological community has provided a multi-year ongoing endeavor that continually evaluates the ongoing data collection, analyses and has developed 6 Syntheses reports, with the latest being AR6, and is working on the 7th. This involves hundreds if not thousands of contributing authors, writers and review editors, guided by a scientific sterring committee. This is not a radical community; in fact the scientific method is geared toward shooting down any and every hypothesis in order to ensure that there is not some alternative explanation/model that provides a better fit to the carefully vetted systematically collected data. The results of this process is inherently conservative, so any conclusions that are provided are couched in level of certainty as science always leaves room for new information and models that are counter to the conclusions provided.
That said, here is the relevant set of conclusions that they provided in 2023 in their latest Synthesis report:
"B.1.3 Continued emissions will further affect all major climate system components. With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to become larger. Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation, and
very wet and very dry weather and climate events and seasons (high confidence). In scenarios with increasing CO 2 emissions, natural land and ocean carbon sinks are projected to take up a decreasing proportion of these emissions (high confidence). Other projected changes include further reduced extents and/or volumes of almost
all cryospheric elements 34 (high confidence), further global mean sea level rise (virtually certain), and increased ocean acidification (virtually certain) and deoxygenation (high confidence). {3.1.1, 3.3.1, Figure 3.4} (Figure SPM.2)
"B.1.4 With further warming, every region is projected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers. Compound heatwaves and droughts are projected to become more frequent, including concurrent events across multiple locations (high confidence). Due to relative sea level rise, current 1-in-100 year extreme sea level events are projected to occur at least annually in more than half of all tide gauge locations by 2100 under all considered scenarios (high confidence). Other projected regional changes include intensification of tropical cyclones and/or extratropical storms (medium confidence), and increases in aridity
and fire weather (medium to high confidence) {3.1.1, 3.1.3}
"B.1.5 Natural variability will continue to modulate human-caused climate changes, either attenuating or amplifying projected changes, with little effect on centennial-scale global warming (high confidence). These modulations are important to consider in adaptation planning, especially at the regional scale and in the near
term. If a large explosive volcanic eruption were to occur 35 , it would temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change by reducing global surface temperature and precipitation for one to three years (medium confidence). {4.3} "
In a nutshell, this is the gold standard of understanding in the scientific climatological community, and your little dances in the CO2 coalition are entertaining to your faithful, but wither away under the rigorous standards of the scientific community. Climate Realism is just Climate Denialism 2.0 and is a political protectionism endeavor that has nothing to do with the science. The writing is on the wall, and we can choose to ignore it for a while longer, but that does not mean we will be able to ignore the consequences that only increase with time.
Loved the podcast with Rachel Donald. So glad you can laugh, it’s healthy and helps so much with both keeping confident and keeping perspective. On a positive note here is a recent article from Speed&Scale discussing electrification and how Trumps election, while a huge setback, can’t stop the energy transition. I work in the battery industry and I’ve said for years now the economics are driving it, it can’t be stopped , not by Trump , not by any one. Keep up the fight ! /Roger
https://speedandscale.com/newsletter/a-new-political-landscape/
Climate Realism NOT Climate Alarmism
Its very clear that climate activists and alarmists are going to get a strong dose of Climate realism in the next year as many major western governments realign away from NetZero that is now being proved to be unnecessary, technologically unattainable, economically unviable and extremely foolish.
Many of these new western governments are going to be rolling back carbon taxes and other limits to prosperity placed on their citizens by a NetZero agenda.
This reset is due to new scientific data from more independent scientific groups that clearly shows that there is no climate emergency on this planet.
This means Trump and his team are correct to place climate change low on the priority for government policy and action, other than focused adaptation to a slightly warming planet.
See this Substack for more details.
https://nigelsouthway.substack.com/p/no-netzero
Agree that going to 0% fossil is not realistic nor practical in the short term for a variety of reasons (national security— need to keep fossil infrastructure for things like the military, by-products like asphalt etc). Maybe we go to 10% fossil and see if the CO2 parts per million starts to descend from 420. You don’t seem to be informed on climate science, to say things like a “ slightly warming planet” just displays your ignorance and you need to go back and just do some google searching for a week and get informed. I’d type here and explain it to you , but it’s 2024 and I’m done explaining it to anyone over the age of 30. You’re biased, that’s very clear.
I recommend ignoring Nigel. He's a climate denier and he used to spam the comments section of every single HEATED newsletter. I thought he was gone, but just like Eminem, he's back, back again...
You were right Jill, but it was fun while it lasted :). He doesn’t understand climate fundamentals and just ignores your comments when you call him on it.
Ya, I stopped replying to trolls years ago because they’re mostly just idiots, but this guy Nigel seems to be a reasonably accomplished and intelligent person and is worth convincing I think, let’s see where it goes
Look … Try not to get defensive and abusive if the concept of the “science is settled” gets questioned, because many scientists are saying it is far from settled, and we don’t have a climate emergency on this planet. And that’s why many governments are moving on to far more important policy items. The best suggestion for you is to take a fresh look at the science before you get trapped in your own paradigm. I provided quite a lot of information on my Substack link…… I see you are in the Renewables business.. so this may be the motivation?
No, my 3 daughter’s future is the motivation. I was in the Semiconductor industry for 31 years, only started working in battery the last 5 years. I’ll read your Substack if you do some real research on climate change. And read this article as well on cognitive bias, we all have bias’s , including some of the greatest contributors in all of humanity , it’s human nature. The article is a bit long winded but it’s important to understand, especially in the climate debate, you need to learn more on climate..
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/11/15/bevs-renewables-apparently-are-not-the-answer/
O Please matey.. I am not going to read about this belief system stuff …Its more appropriate you read it as Its clear that you are the one in denial … 😊
Actually, I have a deep understanding of the science, and we now have solid facts that support climate realism.
Why don’t you review the information I have provided that shows that all climate history and impact trends show no risks and climate model projections continue to over state the risk outlook. Most of the “emergency” rhetoric from the UN political sources have been discredited.
But its academic as we now have new western governments who have reviewed the facts agree that we don’t have a climate emergency on this planet. (USA and Canada and a few in the EU and more soon)
If you have scientific questions…… I can try to respond to them…… but its up to you to reach a better state of reality.
There’s no “believing” in climate change, you either understand it or you don’t, clearly you don’t.
Look… If you have a scientific question or comments on the facts I have presented I will try to help but don’t keep saying that I “don’t understand” or some other kind of waste of my time.
As already mentioned the new policy baseline in the USA and Canada will soon be Climate Realism which I explained in my Substack link, and its now your job to change our position….. not ours to convince you.
I will leave you with another article that was written about a year ago and most of my predictions have come true.…
https://www.brainzmagazine.com/post/take-back-manufacturing-climate-realism
"We're so deep in this damn hole I don't think we'll ever get out!"
"Just keep digging!!"
DJT said, "I don't think they know" when asked about the reasons for climate change.
Fealty to DJT is the overwhelmingly significant primary qualifier for serving in his cabinet.
Hence, every one of his cabinet picks is a de facto climate denier.
Tragically, the American people get the government they choose.
Some of these people even *used* to be Democrats. Now they're a shell of the promise they once offered as politicians and activists. To say it's disappointing would be an understatement.
Thank you again for detailing this. The next two years will be critical - mid terms are likely to be a further referendum on their agenda. Their positions on climate policy are predictable, but mostly because of political polarization than any real "belief system" (ok, the oil exec excepted). Looking at this through the eyes of "American Exceptionalism", and moreover the MAGA sense that "they're trying to destroy our way of life", there is a way to counter what is admittedly a really bad set of actors. Clean energy jobs are also just jobs for electricians, utility workers, manufacturing labor, construction workers, etc... and I would expect a full rebranding. Shouldn't we try to wrap the clean energy transition policies in American first (counter the Chinese), wrap the jobs in our exceptionalism as a creative and dynamic economy, wrap the tax policies in giving benefits to the average American family who wants a new roof, heat pump, new electrical panel. While a part of the climate movement must keep working on climate justice, getting the science funded, and global solidarity, there is a role for keeping the momentum going by fitting into a different frame; Not contorting, but merely stripping away some of the language and branding that gets in the way.
Be the chameleon. Find the cracks and exploit the disunity. Magnify the winning messages. Don't give up.
The U.S. is in dire straits and all we can do is watch it all burn while we do our best to take care of what we can within our reach. All we can do anymore is individual actions to mitigate our personal carbon footprint. The new government only cares about making money for the wealthy corporations. We will have to endure this for at least a couple of years or longer, depending on the mid-term elections.
If you live in one of the extreme weather impact zones, get ready as the new government will not be there to help you anymore, not that they have offered much to anyone lately.
Take care of yourselves as best as you can as we no longer have a government for the people. It is a government for the rich elites until the people decide to vote in a different direction.
You call Chris Wright one of the most concerning appointments for the incoming administration. I respectfully disagree.
Full disclosure: I am a career frac’r and have worked with and for Chris Wright since 1994.
Unfortunately, anyone who asks any questions about climate change and mitigation of CO2 emissions today is quickly called a climate change denier. This branding is unfortunate. It does not allow for any nuances on scientific differences, alternative solutions or a frame of reference as compared to other problems.
Science is at its best when people ask questions. This is where Wright excels. But asking questions is controversial in a mostly single-problem and single-solution climate world. Please help me with these if you can:
- While he agrees CO2 is increasing due to use of fossil fuels, is it ok to ask if that is exclusively bad? (global greening, increased crop yields, fewer deaths from extreme cold)
- Is it ok to repeat the IPCC assessment that today’s extreme weather events are not much different from the past, or that the politicized IPCC assessment report summary exaggerates its own scientific findings?
- What’s wrong about his concern that climate change is not our top problem when Nobel Laureate Nordhaus assesses that human climate adaption will only have a single-digit percentage point negative impact on global economic wellbeing in the year 2100, while overall GDP per capita for all citizens of the world will have increased 300-400%?
- What’s wrong about him wanting to provide 7 billion poor people in need, with poverty as their #1 problem, access to cheap and abundant energy that you and I take for granted?
I hope you will answer the above questions just as he will answer your five in the Senate. You may not agree with all answers, but that’s ok in a world where people debate trade-offs - the real world.
You’ll be in for a treat. I know few people who are as thoughtful, understanding of big-picture problems and economic costs & benefits, and as passionate about access to energy for all people on this planet beyond the lucky 1 billion.
Call me biased. Please do. That’s because I have seen proof of a sober approach to climate and energy for thirty years.
“Is it ok to repeat the IPCC assessment that today’s extreme weather events are not much different from the past, or that the politicized IPCC assessment report summary exaggerates its own scientific findings?“. — again do your own research, Katherine Hayhoe’s publications are a great place to start. Climate change is a force multiplier, ask the people of Asheville,NC what they think about past vs present rainfall. Water saturation in air is an exponential function of temperature:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dew_point
“While he agrees CO2 is increasing due to use of fossil fuels, is it ok to ask if that is exclusively bad? (global greening, increased crop yields, fewer deaths from extreme cold)”
The fact that you even need to ask this questions displays your ignorance, there are dozens of tipping points that will have catastrophic consequences, just do your own research or talk to someone who has.
Repubs? out to ruin our planet!
As Steve Bannon said, "Flood the zone with shit."
Thanks for the pile.